TDP Catalog

Short-Term Diversion Outlook Table 3 summarizes expected short-term diversion trends, based on specific activities and trends anticipated over the next two years, as identified by facility operators and other stakeholders. The analysis indicates that the California waste tire diversion rate probably peaked in 2012, and appears likely to decline somewhat in 2013. While exports are expected to decline in 2013, this will likely be offset by increases in civil engineering and tire-derived fuel. Reuse is expected to remain flat, and alternative daily cover at landfills is expected to remain flat or decline slightly. The wild card is ground rubber, which is difficult to predict at this juncture. While some expect increased rubberized asphalt rubber demand, and turf, mulch and molded products have all grown in recent years, there are signs that rubberized asphalt rubber demand may not increase. It is unclear whether imported ground rubber may impact demand for California rubber in some segments, particularly with declining CalRecycle tire-derived product grant funds in coming years. Overall, SAIC believes the diversion rate is most likely to dip in 2013, though it is difficult to predict how far, and the diversion rate in 2014 will depend largely on how demand unfolds for exports and ground rubber.

Table 3 Short-Term (Two-Year) Diversion Outlook

2012 Diversion Two-Year Diversion Outlook Million PTE Percent

Category

Basis for Outlook

 The number of used passenger vehicle tires that are suitable for reuse is limited and may be approaching its upper limit.  As the economy recovers, more goods will be shipped by truck, increasing demand for retread truck tires. Still, retreaders expect flat or only slightly increasing sales in 2012.  RAC is increasingly accepted by local governments and Caltrans; however, paving is limited by budget constraints and the slow economy.  One Caltrans district has reportedly shifted away from RAC use.  Ground producers continue to be squeezed on the supply side by competition with exporters and reduced tip fee revenue, and on the demand side by increased competition with out-of-state producers that may have lower prices. Some ground producers and manufacturers said they expect business to increase slightly in 2012.  Transportation (rail) projects expected in 2013 and/or 2014 will result in large increases of TDA for that segment.  Five CalRecycle-funded landfill projects are expected to use 21,263 tons of TDA in coming months and years, in addition to two existing landfills, indicating significant growth in this segment.

Reuse

7.3 16.3% Flat

Ground Rubber

9.8 21.7% Uncertain

Growth Expected

Civil Engineering

0.6

1.3%

Contractor’s Report to CalRecycle

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